Our betting guru Jones Is aware of is again to preview an thrilling weekend of Premier League motion, the place he sees a cushty win for Tottenham at Forest.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, Friday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Tottenham have scored in all their final 29 matches throughout all competitions. Within the Premier League, solely Brighton (32) are on an extended present run.
Evaluate that to Nottingham Forest who’ve failed to attain in two of their final three matches. Their general attacking metrics have them rated as a relegation threatened facet as solely Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United have a decrease whole anticipated targets output this season. Targets win soccer matches, so it is simple to see why Spurs, enjoying such relentless and swashbuckling soccer, are 4/6 with Sky Guess for the away win.
Friday fifteenth December 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
My punting instincts have taken me to the playing cards market the place I am occupied with Nottingham Forest to maintain the referee Jarred Gillett busy.
Ange Postecoglou’s attacking soccer philosophy ends in an enormous variety of one-on-one duels and take-on alternatives which finally raises the potential of Spurs gamers being fouled by the opposition. No workforce have received extra free-kicks this season than Spurs (224) and solely Manchester Metropolis have drawn extra yellow playing cards from the opposition than Postecoglou’s facet (48).
Underneath the Metropolis Floor lights – with the supporters absolutely behind their under-pressure supervisor Steve Cooper – Forest could also be tempted right into a late sort out or two and might be eager on disrupting the Spurs rhythm. Cooper’s facet to select up extra reserving factors than Spurs at Evens is an effective place to begin however I am completely satisfied to again two particular person gamers to select up a card.
Cheick Kouyate – a 7/2 shot with Sky Guess – has been booked in each his final two begins and has picked up six yellows in simply 1153 minutes of motion for Forest since signing final season. Additionally, Harry Toffolo might be charged with conserving tabs on the returning Brennan Johnson, whose tempo and trickery could result in the aggressive full-back mistiming a problem. It is 9/2 with Sky Guess he will get carded and a whopping 25/1 in case you again the double.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Cheick Kouyate & Harry Toffolo both to be carded (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Bournemouth vs Luton, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth are operating sizzling, profitable 5 of their final seven video games – solely Liverpool have picked up extra factors since October 28. But, they’re utterly unbackable right here at 1/2 with Sky Guess as Luton are constructed to wobble their foundations and expose them from set items. I fairly just like the look of the draw at 7/2.
Solely Nottingham Forest have conceded extra targets from set items conditions than the Cherries (7) with the anticipated targets metric of 5.85 suggesting underlying points.
The betting avenue to discover is the 9/2 with Sky Guess about Luton defender Alfie Doughty registering an help. For starters, Doughty is Luton’s set piece taker and he leads the charts within the Premier League for probabilities created per 90 minutes this season (1.52) of gamers to play 500 minutes or extra – suggesting a better stage of accuracy than the likes of James Ward-Prowse and Trent Alexander-Arnold. He is additionally main the best way for crosses into the field per 90 (9.39) within the Premier League.
Doughty ought to be backed to seize his fourth help of the marketing campaign.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Chelsea vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
In what appears to be like a fairly drab betting warmth with a low-scoring Chelsea win anticipated, heading to the participant fouls and playing cards market could show a clever play. Auston Trusty is more likely to play down the left of the Blades defence and could have a busy afternoon of one-on-one duels with both Raheem Sterling or Cole Palmer asking him questions.
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Trusty is an aggressive participant, who’s historically extra suited to enjoying centrally. He made 4 fouls in 1-0 win over Brentford, wiping out Keane Lewis-Potter with a few wild challenges that did draw a yellow card his means. Utilizing the Bet Builder on Sky Bet for him to make two fouls and be yellow carded comes out at 4/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Manchester Metropolis vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Latching onto a participant switching positions can open up nice betting alternatives in participant prop markets. Important worth could be snapped up in case you can react faster and smarter than the merchants, who maybe have their eyes elsewhere on extra liquid markets.
An awesome present instance is centre-back turned defensive midfielder Chris Richards for Crystal Palace, who was excellent of their 2-1 defeat to Liverpool. He did some vital work in entrance of his again 4, appearing because the destroyer the place he made 4 tackles and was yellow carded for a cynical foul within the second half.
Now, his current information enjoying centre-back for Hoffenheim and Palace has him making 0.56 fouls per 90 minutes and his yellow card probabilities rated at simply seven per cent over that pattern measurement. Enjoying in this sort of position towards Metropolis, who’ve drawn 54 yellow playing cards off the opposition this season – essentially the most of any Premier League workforce – places him firmly within the body for choosing up one other reserving at 3/1 with Sky Guess in what ought to be a routine dwelling victory.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Newcastle vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I bow right down to anybody who noticed this Fulham objective bonanza coming. After scoring simply 10 targets of their opening 12 video games, they’ve now hit 16 of their final 4, together with placing back-to-back 5-0 dwelling wins collectively. And to assume I used to be near pulling the set off on them to be relegated final month. Bullet dodged. Marco Silva is a severely underrated operator.
Backside lips had been trembling everywhere in the present at full-time at St James’ Park in midweek as in some way Newcastle had been knocked out of Europe regardless of some spectacular performances. Eddie Howe has a severe activity to try to galvanise these gamers to go once more and never make tiredness an excuse. With out Sven Botman and Nick Pope this can be a defence that may be bought at, particularly when assault like Fulham arrive in such purring kind.
Throughout their final eight matches, Eddie Howe’s facet have shipped a median of two.31 anticipated targets towards per 90 and have confronted a per recreation common of 17.25 photographs on their objective. A contemporary and firing Fulham can hit someplace close to these averages with the costs surrounding Alex Iwobi on the forefront of my betting plans.
In his final six begins the previous Everton man has fired 17 photographs and netted three targets enjoying in Silva’s fluid attacking foursome. These numbers make his shot costs of Evens with Sky Guess for 2 or extra and anytime goalscorer worth of 5/1 very engaging punts.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Alex Iwobi to have two or more shots (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Burnley vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
The Premier League has turn into a league the place over 2.5 objective backers can earn cash.
With 160 video games performed this season, the full per-game objective common stands at 3.12. If this ratio stays constant, it may soar previous the earlier Premier League file of goals-per-game common, which was recorded final season at 2.85. This sturdy proof means we’re on the stage the place if over the two.5 targets line is the outsider, it should routinely be thought of a possible play. That is what we have now for the Sean Dyche derby with Evens obtainable on over 2.5 targets.
It is a stunning worth contemplating Turf Moor has seen a median of three.75 targets per recreation in eight Premier League matches this season with six of these eight going over the two.5 line.
Everton are considerably weakened via the center of their defence, too, with Jarrad Branthwaite suspended. The Toffees have misplaced each Premier League video games to Fulham and Aston Villa with out the James Tarkowski-Branthwaite axis, transport 5 targets. Burnley can get on the scoresheet in a probably thrilling encounter.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Back Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Arsenal vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm
Of their final 26 matches throughout all competitions towards Man Metropolis, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham and Arsenal, Brighton have scored 46 targets. To common virtually two targets per recreation in these fixtures towards such elite oppositions is outrageous, subsequently the full Brighton targets line is my desired angle right here.
Roberto De Zerbi’s assault have additionally scored of their final 21 video games away from dwelling within the Premier League. They will not be altering their risk-reward model for anybody, particularly taking over a workforce they’ve scored eight targets towards of their three fixtures with De Zerbi in cost. Arsenal ought to be nervous.
The 11/4 with Sky Guess for the Seagulls to attain two or extra targets is probably going to provide you an awesome run in what could possibly be a improbable spectacle of a soccer match.
Control Pascal Gross getting in on the objective involvement act, too.
De Zerbi has employed him in a really artistic hybrid position on the left of the Brighton midfield the place he’s linking up with Karou Mitoma very intelligently and offering very harmful attacking moments for his facet.
Throughout his final 303 minutes of Premier League motion, he has registered 5 objective involvements (4 assists, one objective) while posting six photographs heading in the right direction and creating 15 whole probabilities for his teammates. Phenomenal numbers from a phenomenally underrated footballer who could be backed at 9/1 with Sky Guess to attain or help, have a shot heading in the right direction and register two photographs. That is an awesome wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Pascal Gross to score or assist, have at least two shots & one on target (9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brentford vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm
Lucas Digne’s suspension means Alex Moreno will step in down Villa’s left – a vital place in Unai Emery’s attacking construction. The left-wing again is tasked with offering the attacking width as Emery instructs his midfielders to play inside to overload that central space. Digne ranks third within the Premier League for defenders by way of anticipated assists this season (2.61) and solely 4 gamers have tried extra crosses within the Premier League (108).
Moreno, on the idea of watching him final season, provides better attacking risk than Digne so I am within the 9/2 with Sky Guess for him to register an help in a recreation Villa ought to fancy their probabilities in.
Within the interval between March and the top of final season, he topped the charts for defenders by way of take-ons within the opposition half at 3.3 per 90 which places him in on a par with Karou Mitoma and his anticipated help return was averaging round 0.2 per 90 which may be very related returns to Kieran Trippier and Andy Robertson. He can help in an away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, reside on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I am eager to again David Moyes to get a response from his West Ham defence after their 5-0 hammering at Fulham.
West Ham might be in no-thrills mode underneath Moyes, who has seen his workforce’s ship 4 or extra targets on 49 events however their file within the matches instantly after exhibits they’ve received with out conceding 14 instances. That is a 30 per cent likelihood of a win to nil coming straight after a thrashing. That appears attention-grabbing right here at 3/1 with Sky Guess.
It makes little sense that Wolves have managed to attain of their final 15 Premier League video games, since their opening day 1-0 defeat to Manchester United. Gary O’Neil has bought them shifting in the proper path however that could be a statistic you’d affiliate with Brighton or Tottenham, not a mediocre attacking workforce like Wolves. The actual fact they’ve scored simply as soon as in 9 of these 15 matches tells you it will not take a lot for this freakish run to finish. It’d simply do right here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Manchester United are 7/1 with Sky Guess to win a soccer match. How the mighty have fallen.
To be given only a 12.5 per cent likelihood likelihood of profitable a Premier League recreation exhibits you simply how bewilderingly unhealthy United’s underlying course of is and the way wretched their file away from dwelling towards elite opposition is underneath Erik ten Hag. Bear in mind, United have taken only one level from their 11 Premier League away video games vs high 9 sides underneath this supervisor (D1 L10) and have conceded 34 targets in these matches. Staggering.
With Bruno Fernandes suspended, their most artistic outlet, United’s solely hope of stifling Liverpool might be to show this right into a canine battle. Break up play, waste time, be organised in a block and hope all the large probabilities fall to Darwin Nunez relatively than Mohamed Salah.
Ten Hag has proven he can utilise these techniques successfully, albeit normally towards lesser opposition however the best way Liverpool fumbled round towards Palace’s low block final weekend for 75 minutes stays firmly in my ideas. It was the identical when tasked with breaking down 10-man Everton at Anfield earlier this season with an absence of guile in midfield nonetheless hampering their assent. United are trusted to keep away from a hammering.
Swimming towards the market and backing underneath 3.5 targets at 10/11 with Sky Guess definitely is a runner if United can keep within the recreation early doorways while taking an opportunity on the Liverpool to win 1-0 or 2-0 at 5/1 additionally stands out.
