CLIMATEWIRE | DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Now the actual work begins.
The primary few days of the COP28 local weather convention featured so many lofty declarations and flashy promises that you simply’d be forgiven for asking what delegates are nonetheless doing right here. However the principle negotiations have solely simply gotten underway.
On the core of this yr’s summit sits one thing referred to as the “Global Stocktake,” typically abbreviated to GST — a nondescript identify that conceals its important position in worldwide local weather efforts.
In brief, it’s about drawing up a report card on the place the world stands eight years after signing the Paris Settlement, and the way international locations plan to repair their inevitable shortcomings. That plan popping out of COP28 will assist decide whether or not the world can stave off the worst impacts of local weather change or careen towards unlivable temperatures.
German local weather envoy Jennifer Morgan referred to as the stocktake the “heart” of the Paris local weather accord; Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, labeled it a “lifeline” for particularly susceptible international locations like his native Samoa.
The result of this obscure course of can also be what high-ranking ministers will likely be haggling over once they arrive for the second week of COP28 — and what the United Arab Emirates hosts will likely be judged on in the long run.
“What makes this COP unique as compared to the previous COPs? First and foremost, it’s the Global Stocktake,” EU lead negotiator Jacob Werksman advised reporters on Monday.
So what’s it? Let’s have a look.
What are we even speaking about?
The World Stocktake broadly refers to an intensive evaluation of how a lot progress international locations are making towards the Paris Settlement targets, which dedicated international locations to limiting world warming to beneath 2 levels Celsius and ideally to 1.5 C in comparison with the pre-industrial period.
The method consists of three elements. The primary stage, gathering all of the related data, started two years in the past. The second section, evaluating that knowledge, ended this summer time.
The ultimate process — the response to this evaluation — concludes at COP28. That’s the onerous half.
Underneath the Paris accord’s phrases, international locations should conduct this train each 5 years.
Hold on, the evaluation already occurred?
Yup. You’ll generally hear that international locations will conduct an evaluation of their local weather efforts whereas in Dubai, however the United Nations already revealed its report summarizing the findings in September — concluding that the world is falling in need of its Paris targets.
“That assessment has been done, it is clear we are not on a track,” Morgan advised a press convention in Dubai final week. With present efforts, she famous, “we will see a temperature rise of 2.5C to 2.9C.”
She added: “That is unimaginable.”
Beyond 1.5C, climate impacts like extreme weather or sea-level rise get substantially worse. Scientists warn that overshooting that threshold risks triggering irreversible tipping points like dramatic polar ice loss, which would further exacerbate warming.
So what’s happening at COP28?
Negotiators in Dubai are discussing what countries should do with that report, which gave strict instructions to retain any hope of hitting the 1.5C target: First, cut 43 percent of greenhouse gas emissions this decade (compared to 2019 levels), then hit net-zero emissions by 2050.
But there are profound divisions over how to get there.
“The first component is taking stock of what the gaps are,” stated Tom Evans, who tracks the stocktake negotiations in Dubai for suppose tank E3G. “Second, what do you do about these gaps? And that’s where the political flashpoints are.”
What could that response look like?
A lot of things, but the idea is for everyone from the Paris Agreement — that’s nearly 200 countries — to endorse a coherent plan by the summit’s end.
Again, not easy.
The document is expected to both look back at what went wrong and then look ahead with guidelines on how to remedy those shortcomings. That roadmap should include a climate wish list — everything from cutting emissions to preparing communities for climate change fallout to financing for both.
So … phrases on a web page. Does that even matter?
It does, for a couple of causes.
First, the text will give clear directions to countries as they draw up their next climate action plans. The Paris Agreement requires governments to submit new plans by COP30, which takes place in Brazil in 2025.
Second, those words send a powerful signal to markets, local governments and more. If nearly 200 countries agree on a text that says a coal phaseout is necessary, investors will take the hint.
With the stocktake, “we have the opportunity to take a set of decisions … that finds the clarity that business leaders need to invest in the future,” Morgan said.
The outcome will also test the Paris accord’s integrity. These regular check-ins and the requirement to then update climate plans are meant to ensure everyone is upping their efforts over time.
“The effectiveness of the Paris Agreement is at stake,” Evans said.
And what do countries want?
The end result should set out what to do about planet-warming fossil fuels, as well as efforts to prepare for a warmer future and steps to ensure poorer countries have the resources to do that, as well.
“No one is trying to tear the whole thing down,” said Evans.
That doesn’t mean countries are close to an agreement.
Urgent calls for a fossil fuel “phaseout” — a much-debated term — are especially contentious.
Many developing countries say they need more financial support to back ambitious language on fossil fuels and other efforts to reduce emissions.
Meanwhile, the EU, the U.S. and climate-vulnerable countries are trying to ensure new plans don’t exempt any industries and cover all greenhouse gasses, not just carbon dioxide — something China recently said it was on board with.
Going in the other direction, several countries whose economies depend on oil and gas exports — Russia and Saudi Arabia among them — are trying to push for language that would allow for the continued use of fossil fuels.
What’s the UAE’s role here?
The UAE is running the show and must shepherd the stocktake to a conclusion. At some point, the officials in charge will have to produce a draft text for countries to accept or reject.
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber — who, controversially also helms the UAE’s state-run oil giant — has repeatedly insisted he would push for the “most ambitious response possible” to the stocktake. But he has remained vague on what that might look like.
Still, Evans said, “They’re aware that it’s the centerpiece of their COP. The shine of those early pledges will fade, and they’ll need to produce something.”
How are the negotiations going?
There are already some rocky indicators.
As of Monday evening, negotiators hadn’t produced a detailed draft text, despite spending some 10 hours talking behind closed doors on Sunday.
A text outlining possible “building blocks” was released on Friday, but it’s more of a broad summary that left all the hard questions unanswered. Regarding the energy sector, for example, options included “phasedown/out fossil fuels” and “phasedown/out/no new coal.” In other words: All options are on the table.
What’s next?
Over the coming days, negotiators will try to agree on as many sections of the text as possible, but their bosses will take over in the summit’s second week to resolve the thornier questions.
This week’s talks will “inevitably lead to some very important political questions for ministers to resolve in the second week,” said Werksman, the EU negotiator. “Exactly what those questions are, we can’t fully speculate on — but we imagine that the issue of how we’re going to address fossil fuels will be top of the list.”
Technically the deadline is December 12, but if past COPs are any guide, overtime is possible.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E Information supplies important information for vitality and surroundings professionals.
