CLIMATEWIRE | Two weeks, no less than 100,000 attendees and a significant oil producer serving as host nation — with the Earth’s future excessive on the agenda.
The United Nations local weather talks that started Thursday in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, intention to get practically 200 international locations to comply with actions to restrict the worst impacts of world warming. They arrive on the finish of what’s doubtless the most well liked yr on file, as research after research exhibits that planet-warming air pollution continues to be rising, together with the fossil gasoline manufacturing that drives it.
Local weather negotiators and diplomats received’t be the one ones crowding Expo Metropolis. The summit can also be drawing royalty of assorted origins, chief local weather officers, financiers and local weather activists.
What’s going to all these individuals be wrangling about — and does it have any hope of saving the planet? Let this be your information.
The principle course
At its core, the convention is about stopping the worst penalties of local weather change. Which means reducing greenhouse gasoline air pollution.
International locations have made some progress for the reason that annual talks started in 1995, however international temperatures are nonetheless on monitor for nearly 3 degrees Celsius of warming since pre-industrial instances. That’s roughly double essentially the most formidable objective that nations agreed to within the 2015 Paris Settlement.
This yr, dozens of nations — together with fossil-fuel-dependent nations like China and the U.S. — are backing a push to triple renewable power capability and double power effectivity.
A coalition led by the European Union and Pacific island nations desires to go additional by getting international settlement to finally finish manufacturing and use of coal, oil and gasoline. How that language is crafted — whether or not a part “out,” part “down” or one thing extra inventive — might be one measure of headway. However these calls didn’t yield any progress eventually yr’s Egypt-hosted summit, and the UAE and different main polluters don’t appear on board with stronger phase-out language this time.
Failing to shift away from fossil fuels has already pushed the world previous the purpose of stopping a lot of the harm from rising seas, worsening storms and spreading floods, droughts and illness. As an alternative, plenty of the dialog is popping to serving to international locations construct resilience to future disasters and address present ones.
Final yr’s summit landed an historic settlement to create a fund to assist climate-ravaged international locations. And just some hours after this yr’s summit, COP28, started Thursday, delegates authorised the construction of that fund and international locations started pledging lots of of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in donations. (The U.S. lagged behind at $17.5 million, whereas the UAE provided $100 million, a primary for a high-emitting rising financial system.)
What to observe for: Sultan al-Jaber, the UAE oil chief accountable for the talks, is leading an initiative to get oil and gasoline firms to comply with “nearly” eradicate their emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gasoline. (The Biden administration is expected to issue a final rule for its own methane crackdown throughout the summit.) This might produce real-world influence. But it surely received’t tackle the majority of the trade’s local weather air pollution — the greenhouse gasoline emissions produced by burning oil and gasoline.
Phrase wars
U.N. local weather conferences are stuffed with jargon, with phrases like “ambition” and “landing zones” that may have huge implications.
Listed here are a number of that persistently cloud the COP lexicon:
Ambition: Possibly the phrase spoken most frequently in U.N. local weather talks, this refers to how far international locations will go to chop planet-warming air pollution. Measures consistent with Paris’ stretch objective, 1.5 levels of warming, strike local weather advocates as the fitting degree of ambition. Something much less, they argue, is shirking.
Paris targets: The Paris Settlement that 196 international locations agreed to in 2015 is core to all the pieces the U.N. local weather course of goals to attain. The pact known as for taking steps to restrict international temperature rise to “well below” 2 levels Celsius, and to “pursue efforts” to cap it at 1.5 levels. To hit the 1.5 goal throughout this century, scientists estimate, international greenhouse gasoline emissions should peak earlier than 2025 and decline 43 p.c by 2030 — a milestone the world is way off track to achieve. Then they should attain web zero by round 2050.
Adaptation: This will imply many issues: flood defenses, drought-resistant crops, or redesigning buildings to deal with larger temperatures. All that prices cash, and poorer international locations — normally those experiencing the worst harm — want essentially the most assist.
Loss and harm: This was the topic of essentially the most acrimonious fights heading into Dubai. Merely put, low-lying island nations and different weak international locations face harm they’ll’t adapt to, such because the lack of roads, houses and crops or the wiping out of their cultural heritage. Many of those communities need the industrialized nations which have contributed essentially the most to the issue to offer cash to assist poorer international locations get better. However rich nations, the U.S. specifically, have lengthy resisted the implication that they’re legally liable or paying reparations.
Section out vs. part down: The 2021 summit in Glasgow, Scotland, hit a dramatic second when international locations led by India (and backed by China) watered down the ultimate textual content’s coal “phase-out” to a “phase-down.” That principally means decreasing use of coal, versus ending it. This language isn’t legally binding, however it sends essential indicators to governments and traders — and this time, we’re anticipating an analogous debate on the way forward for all fossil fuels.
Carbon removing: In brief, getting carbon dioxide out of the ambiance. That may be carried out via pure processes, corresponding to restoring and defending forests. Or it may imply expertise that filters carbon from the air or oceans, so it may be saved underground, underneath the seabed or in merchandise like concrete. That expertise hasn’t but been rolled out on a big scale, however it’s one potential strategy to restrict warming past what switching to greener power can obtain.
Unabated: This phrase turns up rather a lot in remarks by U.S. local weather envoy John Kerry, and in place papers by the likes of the G7 — and it factors at one of many central tensions of the local weather debate. Phasing out “unabated” fossil fuels means ending their use at amenities that don’t have the expertise to seize and reduce their carbon air pollution. However local weather activists, and advocates for weak nations, worry that petro-states just like the UAE will seize on this language to maintain producing fossil fuels at present ranges, regardless that specialists say carbon capture at that scale is unrealistic.
NDCs: These “nationally determined contributions” are the nonbinding 10-year pledges that international locations agreed to in Paris to point what they’re doing to restrict international warming. Each 10 years, they’re anticipated to make these pledges stronger. The subsequent spherical of targets is available in 2025, which makes this yr’s talks all of the extra essential — international locations will begin crafting their new NDCs as soon as the summit in Dubai closes.
International stocktake. The Paris Settlement included a provision that international locations ought to produce a progress report on the textual content’s huge targets. That report was known as a worldwide stocktake — and the primary one was produced earlier this yr. Its conclusion: We’re way off track. The COP28 settlement might be — successfully — the political response to that grim remark. Do international locations care? Will they step up the tempo?
The tensions
U.S. vs. China: Frosty relations between China and the U.S. appear to have thawed, no less than the place local weather is worried. That might be good for negotiations on points corresponding to methane, and provides international locations which have resisted transferring first fewer excuses to delay, stated Rachel Kyte, a longtime local weather adviser.
But it surely’s unlikely that worldwide engagement will push China to comply with far more motion to curb coal, a bedrock of its financial and power safety. And broader bilateral tensions over commerce and industrial coverage — each more and more intertwined with local weather — are more likely to be on show in Dubai.
Inexperienced zone, blue zone: The sprawling, futuristic complicated on the outskirts of Dubai that was constructed for Expo 2020 is split into “blue” and “green” zones. The blue zone is the positioning of formal negotiations, a spot for diplomats and their advisers to convene. Solely individuals with U.N. accreditation — together with media and civil society observers — can entry that venue. The inexperienced zone is open to the general public and has incessantly been described as a “trade show.” This yr, it can embrace cubicles from companies, thematic hubs and “socially responsible” meals and beverage retailers.
With file attendance anticipated, the company presence is predicted to be excessive, however it has additionally stirred criticism, together with from U.S. and European lawmakers. In a letter dated Nov. 22, they urged the summit organizers to undertake guidelines that may restrict potential affect from the fossil gasoline trade.
The setup
Talks formally started Thursday with the formal acceptance of the agenda, which sailed via with no battle, marking a optimistic begin. Two days of speeches from nation leaders will comply with Friday and Saturday. Greater than 130 heads of state and authorities will ship remarks, beginning with the UAE’s Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. A number of notable leaders might be absent: Chinese language President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden.
Vice President Kamala Harris will journey in Biden’s place, the White Home confirmed on Wednesday. She’ll be joined by senior officers from greater than 20 U.S. departments and companies, together with particular local weather envoy John Kerry, nationwide local weather adviser Ali Zaidi and senior adviser John Podesta.
For some observers, leaders’ attendance issues lower than what they convey to the desk.
“It’s not as much ‘President Biden, are you coming’ as it is ‘President Biden, what are you ready to do?’” stated David Waskow, director of worldwide local weather on the World Assets Institute.
A bipartisan U.S. Home delegation led by Vitality and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and prime committee Democrat Frank Pallone of New Jersey can even make an look.
Republicans say they see the talks as a chance to showcase how the U.S. is addressing power and environmental points. It’s additionally a strategy to safe America’s future “against adversaries like China,” McMorris Rodgers’ spokesperson Sean Kelly stated in a press release to POLITICO’s E&E Information earlier this month.
Congressional dynamics have confirmed problematic in the case of securing cash to assist fund local weather motion in creating international locations. The U.S. has persistently struggled to get budgetary approval that may assist meet Biden’s $11.4 billion pledge by 2024.
“We still have folks in leadership positions in the House Republican Party that are not only trying to slow down the pace of climate action, but deny it and reverse course,” a senior administration official instructed reporters on Wednesday, talking anonymously as a situation of the decision.
How U.S. lawmakers navigate the talks, and what they intention to perform, might be price watching.
It is going to be McMorris Rodgers’ first journey to any COP gathering — as it can for 2 different Home Republicans whose attendance has been confirmed: Vitality, Manufacturing and Essential Minerals Subcommittee Chair Bill Johnson of Ohio and Vitality, Local weather and Grid Safety Subcommittee Chair Jeff Duncan of South Carolina.
However veteran Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), chair of the Home Conservative Local weather Caucus, might be attending his third U.N. local weather summit.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) additionally plans to attend. He has been pushing a carbon border tax to rival one the European Union is rolling out.
“That to me is the most positive thing on the horizon really in terms of actually reducing emissions,” Whitehouse instructed POLITICO. “And to the extent that America can step up to match it — and perhaps be joined by the U.K., Australia, Japan, Canada — you can put together a really powerful consortium that solves an enormous part of the climate problem.”
What’s going to come from all this?
One huge query mark surrounds the worldwide stocktake — how international locations reply to the report card displaying they’re not dwelling as much as their pledges to chop air pollution. This units international locations as much as craft their subsequent spherical of local weather targets, which would want to intention for even deeper cuts.
These new pledges will begin from 2025. So this convention is successfully a stepping stone towards COP30, which is predicted to happen in Brazil — probably the Amazon.
On a optimistic be aware, one main potential battleground was settled within the opening session: the adoption of a fund for climate-ravaged international locations.
“This is going to be a different COP, with a different presidency, very much centered around action and implementation,” stated al-Jaber, the summit’s president, calling the settlement “unprecedented” and “historic.”
“Getting this done and over the line is a clear demonstration of how committed we are,” he said. “After we commit, we ship and that’s going to be the DNA of COP28.”
The focus of the talks now shifts to getting countries to take on the much harder task of agreeing to a fossil fuel exit.
What to watch for: Whether other nontraditional donors will contribute to the fund for loss and damage. Several countries announced early contributions to the fund Thursday, including the UAE. That could put pressure on other wealthy Gulf nations and emerging ones, such as China, to pony up.
Pledging will continue over the next two days at the leaders’ summit. As of Thursday evening in Dubai, total donations came to more than $400 million.
The U.S. and EU have also argued for a stronger role for the private sector and “innovative” sources, perhaps taxes on aviation or international shipping.
Reporters Suzanne Lynch in Dubai and Emma Dumain in Washington contributed.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.
